Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
